Continue the Bayes-to-Lexibench Civitas article series

[jamiepratt]

Track the planned follow-up posts for the series: Revisiting basic Bayes' theorem and applying it to a real word problem: estimating vocabulary size from Lexibench.com quiz responses.

Published checkpoints:

• Bayes' Theorem, Revisited: Three Interactive Simulations
• Estimating Vocabulary Size with a Simple Bayesian Model

Planned posts:

• Does Pair Frequency Predict Learner Responses?
• From Self-Reported CEFR to a Versioned Lemma–Form-Pair Pool
• From Correlated Form Pairs to Latent Lemma Knowledge
• Modelling Correct, Wrong, and Don't-Know Separately
• Calibrating Items Before IRT and Adaptive Selection
• When Contexts and Senses Become Identifiable

When a post is published, link it from the series contents in both published article sources. Keep scoring-contract, executable examples, and tests synchronized whenever model behavior changes.