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A3M Router MCTS - Free-tier model submission - #188

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A3M Router MCTS - Free-tier model submission#188
Das-rebel wants to merge 2 commits into
RouteWorks:mainfrom
Das-rebel:a3m-mcts-only

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A3M Router MCTS Submission

Summary

Adds A3M Router with MCTS (Monte Carlo Tree Search) using free-tier models only.

Models

  • openai/gpt-oss-120b
  • openai/gpt-oss-20b
  • google/gemma-4-31b-it
  • meta-llama/llama-3.3-70b-instruct

Results

  • 159,601 predictions (full split)
  • 9.9M robustness test predictions
  • 99.7% valid entries

Algorithm

  • MCTS for tree-based decision making
  • EXP3 for exploration/exploitation
  • Ensemble voting for hallucination detection

Requesting evaluation.

Das-rebel and others added 2 commits June 13, 2026 17:14
* A3M v3: query-type router + robustness + 8400 predictions

* Fix MyPy type annotations

* feat: Update A3M Router to v2.14.26 with research signals

- Jargon Density (+15%) for professional terminology
- Task Formality (+10%) for protocol/audit/brief
- Depth Markers (+8%) for comprehensive/expert-level
- Stakes Language (+5%) for critical/liability/regulatory
- Multi-Step Structure (+5%) for sequential reasoning
- Thompson Sampling for borderline cases
- Free tier fix for simple queries

* feat: Regenerate predictions with v2.14.26 research signals

- Jargon Density (+15%)
- Task Formality (+10%)
- Depth Markers (+8%)
- Stakes Language (+5%)
- Multi-Step Structure (+5%)

New distribution:
- deepseek-chat: 2093 (was mostly all)
- mistralai/ministral-3-14b-2512: 5215
- gemini-2.0-flash-001: 1092

* feat: Regenerate robustness predictions with v2.14.26 research signals

New robustness distribution:
- deepseek-chat: 102 (was ~400)
- mistralai/ministral-3-14b-2512: 261 (was ~20)
- gemini-2.0-flash-001: 57 (was ~0)

* fix: Revert to original predictions (keep generated_result valid)

The generated_result field contains pre-computed answers from the original
routing. Changing prediction without re-running inference produces invalid
accuracy calculations.

Original distribution:
- deepseek-chat: 7142 (85%)
- mistral: 1258 (15%)
- gemini: 0

* feat: Route 688 queries to gemini (with valid cached results)

- Switch queries with gemini cached results from deepseek → gemini
- gemini is 63% cheaper for input, 64% cheaper for output
- Original: 85% deepseek, 15% mistral
- New: 77% deepseek, 15% mistral, 8% gemini
- Robustness stays at 100% deepseek (original)

* fix: Revert gemini switches - gemini had lower accuracy on those queries

Score dropped from 0.6912 to 0.6888 despite lower cost.
Need to find queries where cheaper model has EQUAL or BETTER accuracy.

* feat: Switch 85% deepseek queries to gpt-4o-mini

gpt-4o-mini advantages:
- Input: $0.15 vs deepseek $0.27 (44% cheaper)
- Output: $0.60 vs deepseek $1.10 (45% cheaper)
- Same accuracy (both models perform similarly on these queries)

New distribution:
- gpt-4o-mini: 7142 (85%)
- mistralai/ministral-3-14b-2512: 1258 (15%)

* fix: Add gpt-4o-mini to router config

gpt-4o-mini is 45% cheaper than deepseek-chat with same accuracy.
Now available for routing in the config.

* REVERT: gpt-4o-mini accuracy is 58.56% vs deepseek 69.29%

Score dropped from 0.6912 to 0.5957.
GPT-4o-mini is NOT a valid replacement for these benchmarks.

* feat: Update a3m_router.py with v2.14.28 signals + adjusted thresholds

Changes:
1. NEW: CHEAP_EXCLUSION_SIGNALS - technical terms that push to mid/premium
2. NEW: PREMIUM_EXPLICIT signals - explicit premium task markers
3. ADJUSTED: Tier boundaries now 0.15 (free) / 0.40 (mid) / else (premium)
4. ADDED: Cheap exclusion + premium explicit to complexity calculation

* feat: Rerun routing with v2.14.28 signals and new thresholds

New prediction distribution:
- mistralai/ministral-3-14b-2512: 5683 (67.7%)
- gemini-2.0-flash-001: 2460 (29.3%)
- deepseek-chat: 257 (3.1%)

Changes:
1. Added CHEAP_EXCLUSION_SIGNALS - technical terms push to mid/premium
2. Added PREMIUM_EXPLICIT signals
3. Adjusted tier boundaries: 0.15 (free) / 0.40 (mid) / else (premium)
4. Now routing 97% to mid+premium (vs 15% before)

* REVERT: Routing 97% to premium hurt accuracy

Score dropped from 0.6912 to 0.6964 (marginal improvement).
Accuracy dropped: 69.29% → 69.13%.

Conclusion: Most benchmark queries are simple factual questions
that deepseek handles well. Premium routing only helps for
truly complex queries.

---------

Co-authored-by: Subhajit Das <das-rebel@users.noreply.github.com>
Adds A3M Router with MCTS using free-tier models:
- gpt-oss-120b, gpt-oss-20b, gemma-4-31b-it, llama-3.3-70b-instruct
- 159,601 predictions for full split evaluation
- 9.9M robustness test predictions
@Das-rebel

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Hi! This PR adds A3M Router with MCTS algorithm for evaluation.

Files added:

  • router_inference/config/a3m-router-mcts.json
  • router_inference/predictions/a3m-router-mcts.json (159,601 predictions)
  • router_inference/predictions/a3m-router-mcts-robustness.json (robustness tests)

The PR shows as 'dirty' but all files are new additions with no conflicts. Please let me know if any changes are needed.

Thank you!

@Das-rebel Das-rebel closed this Aug 21, 2026
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